由「大國保證」到「國際託管」:From “Two Double Assurances” to “International Trust” by HoonTing 由「大國保證」到「國際託管」 North Korea: From "the Two 'Double Assurances'" to "the International Trust" by HoonTing The peace on Korean Peninsula relies heavily on a model of "Two 'Double Assurances'." The US and South Korea signed "the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States of America and the Rep 室內設計ublic of Korea" in 1953, while China and North Korea concluded "the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty" in 1961. In the model, "the Big Brothers" should protect "the Little Brothers" from foreign armed attack, and "the Little Brother" should listen to "the Big Brother" in return. In other words, restricting the two Lit 面膜tles on the Peninsula are the responsibilities of the two Bigs. Unfortunately, Beijing seems reluctant to bear the responsibility of restricting North Korea. She tacitly acknowledges whatever North Korea has done in breach of international laws. She can't, or simply she won't? Either would severely undermine the long existing "Two 'Double Assurances." Bu 租辦公室t is a new model possible? What would that be? One possible new model for peace might be "International Trust" of NK. Since the UN has passed the authorization of military intervention in 1950, no new UNSC resolution is needed. The UN just summons forces including NATO member states, Japan and Russia to replace Kim's regime with a new one. However, because Beijing shows no willin 找房子gness to take responsibility, the UN does not have to invite Chinese PLA forces in the operation. However, in order to respect China's long interests in this area, the UN could invite military observers to UN's Headquarter and acknowledge PLA (Army) divisions standing by along the north bank of Yalu River. Post war re-building is always critical to any armed conflict. The UN should designate the 買房子post-war NK under "the international trust system", of which the US, Russia, China, Japan, and Sweden should be in charge. SK should be invited to invest in NK re-building. The international Trust should last for decades before allowing NK people to decide their future by a plebiscite under UN's surveillance. Taiwan was a "side flank" of Korean War in 1950. The immediate question is: Is she still a "side flank" now? I 保濕面膜f yes, on which side Taiwan stand? The UN has to confirm Taiwan's possible hostility before taking any solution. revised on 20111015 由「大國保證」到「國際託管」 太平洋戰爭結束後,特別是韓戰以來,朝鮮半島的和平是透過一種「(兩)大國保證」的方式在維持,其具體的架構是韓國與美國在1953年簽訂〈美韓共同防禦條約〉,朝鮮(北韓)與中國在1961年簽署〈中朝友好合作互助條約〉。這兩條約同樣規定若韓國或朝鮮遭受攻擊,等於盟友美國或中國遭受攻擊。因為大國的介 長灘島入,使得小國不敢輕舉妄動;相對的,大國也必須約束小國,甚至在必要時以強制力控制小國,從而保證和平能在緊張中持續。 這種和平架構的關鍵是大國不能推脫責任:一方面要防禦小國、一方面必須約束小國。從朝鮮近年來的脫序行為來看,中國顯然無法或不願承擔約束朝鮮的大國義務,朝鮮也似乎想拖中國下水以予取予求。實質上,中朝之「盟」已遭受本身的嚴重侵害。 假使朝鮮繼續脫序,中國繼續卸責,「大國保證」的架構也無法持續。於是,美韓無法不實施軍事反應,否則也會影響到韓國的政權與社會穩定。但美韓在 酒肉朋友進行軍事反應之前,必須先考慮戰事結束後的重建問題。重建才是軍事行動的關鍵。 一個可能的模型是:使朝鮮半島從搖搖欲墜的「大國保證」走向朝鮮一國的「國際託管」。 由於聯合國早在1950年即有軍事干預的授權,而因為韓戰並未結束故此授權仍舊有效。其方法可以是,一方面美國通知聯合國重啟動員;在通知的同時,另糾集以北約為主的成員國(包括俄羅斯與日本),以聯合國軍的名義武力推翻金正日與金正恩政權。為使中國安心起見,聯合國可以邀請其屯兵鴨綠江北岸,並邀請觀察員至聯軍總部,但基於中國長期置身事外,切不必使其成為?訂做禮服p軍的成員。 看看朝鮮已佈置大量濃縮鈾分離機,積極發展核武已成定局,恐事不宜遲。 然而,面對地緣政治的現實,朝鮮部分的重建必須交由聯合國,特別是美、中、日、俄,加上中立的瑞典等五國主導國際託管事宜,並導入包括韓國在內的國際資金來建設荒蕪的朝鮮。數十年後,再依情勢公投決定朝鮮的前途。 值得思考的是:1950年時,台灣是韓戰的側翼。這次,台灣還會不會是側翼?誰的側翼?對聯合國而言,進行前述「想定」時不能不先確定台灣的敵性。 【姊妹文章】北韓破產模型 【相關閱讀】初評朝鮮1123砲擊事件:朝鮮半島的和戰格局 1123:朝鮮開砲惹是非 術後面膜  .
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